Portugal arrive on 28 March 2026 with a recent run built around tight margins, having won three of their last four and kept two straight opponents out. Their 1-0 success over Poland U19 in the elite round came after the narrow defeat to England U19, while the 1-0 home win over Wales U19 before that points to a side that can protect a lead when the game stays close.

Serbia are capable of making this awkward, though. They beat England U19 2-0 in their latest outing and have also scored in four of their last five, but the same stretch includes a home loss to Norway U19 and a draw with Belgium U19. That mix fits the small xG gap here, with Portugal projected at 1.2 and Serbia at 1.1, so this is not a runaway home case.

The head-to-head history offers some support for Portugal holding sway on home soil. Serbia’s 6-5 friendly win in September 2025 was a chaos game, yet Portugal have beaten them three times in the last six meetings, including a 4-1 qualifier victory in March 2024 and a 3-0 away win in 2022. Even so, Serbia’s recent away win over England shows they are not travelling just to defend.

Portugal’s home record in the recent sample is also the cleaner part of the argument for a home win, with their only home result in the provided list a 1-0 victory over Wales and a draw with Türkiye U19 before that. Serbia have already shown they can score away, but they have also left space behind, and Portugal’s knack for first goals in this run is important if the game becomes another narrow contest.

My prediction is Home Win at 4/5. Portugal have won three of their last four, they have kept clean sheets in their last two completed results, and they have beaten Serbia three times in the last six head-to-head meetings. Serbia’s away win over England is a warning sign, and the 1.2 to 1.1 xG split suggests a close match, but Portugal still look likelier to edge it on home soil.