Potenza head into this one with a mixed recent spell, having lost two of their last three league matches and conceding in five of their last six competitive games. Their home record is better than their overall standing suggests, with only two home defeats all season, but they still have not looked especially secure at the back, which is a concern against a side chasing promotion.

Salernitana arrive with stronger league numbers and the better away profile, sitting second in the away table with eight wins on the road. They have also taken four points from their last two league matches, and their most recent away win at Crotone came through a narrow, controlled 1-0 result. That sort of efficiency matters here because Potenza have already shown they can be difficult to beat at home, so this is not a straightforward away-day.

The scoring trends lean to a tight but away-leaning contest. Salernitana have gone under 2.5 goals in five of their last seven league matches, while Potenza’s home games have often been more controlled than their overall season suggests, with only 15 goals conceded in 16 home fixtures. The one head-to-head meeting available finished 1-1 in November, so there is some evidence of a competitive game, although Potenza’s recent 1-2 defeat at Trapani also hints at late resistance rather than comfort.

Salernitana’s away record gives them the edge, and their season-long gap in the standings is hard to ignore: 60 points and third place against Potenza’s 41 points in 10th. Potenza have also gone three league games without a clean sheet, which matters against a team that has already won eight times away from home. The projected 1-2 scoreline is reasonable, even if Potenza’s decent home numbers mean the visitors may have to work for it.

My prediction is Away Win at 6/5. Salernitana’s away record is the stronger of the two, they have won four of their last six league matches, and Potenza have lost two of their last three in the league. The home side’s recent run has included three defeats in six competitive games, while Salernitana have shown enough control in narrow away wins to edge a match like this.