Racing Club come into this Copa Argentina tie in good shape, with four wins and two draws from their last six matches and an eight-game unbeaten run behind them. They have also kept things tight at the back recently, drawing 0-0 with Sarmiento and Boca Juniors and then following that with a 2-0 home win over Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, so there is little sign of a flat performance.

The home side’s recent numbers point to control rather than chaos. Their last six games have produced only four goals conceded, and the xG projection of 3.0 to 0.5 leans strongly their way. Even if the 3-1 correct score forecast suggests San Martín Formosa can nick a goal, the overall attacking and defensive gap is large enough to keep the focus on a Racing victory.

San Martín Formosa arrive with far less to lean on, having lost their only listed recent match, the 2-1 defeat to Huracán in Copa Argentina. That game was a clear step up in difficulty, but the underlying xG of 0.6 to 1.8 showed they were second best, and they have not shown any evidence of the sort of away resistance that would unsettle a stronger opponent here.

There is also a useful head-to-head reference, with Racing Club beating San Martín Formosa 3-1 in the 2023 Copa Argentina meeting. Add in Racing’s current unbeaten run and the fact that San Martín Formosa are without a clean sheet in six, and the home win case looks even firmer. The only mild tension is that cup games can still throw up a concession, which is why a comfortable home success rather than a shutout is the safer reading.

My prediction is Home Win at 17/100. Racing are unbeaten in eight, have four wins and two draws from their last six, and come in with a far stronger xG profile than San Martín Formosa. The visitors have already shown vulnerability in their 2-1 loss to Huracán, and the 2023 head-to-head also finished 3-1 to Racing, which fits a home victory again here.