Raith Rovers come into this with one win, one draw and four defeats across their last six in league play, while Ayr United have not won in eight Championship outings and have failed to keep a clean sheet in six. That combination leans toward a tight contest rather than a high-scoring one, especially with Ayr often struggling to turn possession into a clear edge and Raith’s recent home games including a 0-2 loss to Partick Thistle and a 3-1 win over Airdrieonians.

The home and away numbers also point to caution. Raith’s home record is solid but not explosive, with 25 goals scored and 18 conceded in 15 league matches, while Ayr’s away figures stand at 19 scored and 18 conceded in 15. Those splits sit closer to a balanced, lower-margin game than a free-scoring one, and the season averages for home and away matches are modest as well.

Recent head-to-head meetings fit the same pattern. Three of the last five league clashes between these sides finished with two goals or fewer, including Raith’s 1-0 away win in August 2025 and Ayr’s 2-0 home win in October 2025. The only awkward note for an under is the 2-1 Ayr win in January, so this is not a one-way trend, but the broader profile still favours restraint.

Raith have also been involved in five of their last seven league matches finishing under 2.5 goals, which adds some direct support to the market. Ayr’s long winless run and lack of clean sheets can still allow a goal at either end, but their recent results have not pointed to a game that suddenly opens up. A 1-1 scoreline is the main risk to the under, yet even that would land in our favour.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 57/100. Raith’s recent home results have been mixed but rarely wild, Ayr are winless in eight league matches and have gone six without a clean sheet, and both sides’ home and away scoring records are fairly modest. The head-to-head also contains plenty of low-total outcomes, with three of the last five league meetings staying under this line.