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Both teams scoring is easy to see from Elche’s recent league profile. Their last four LaLiga matches finished 2-1, 1-4, 1-2 and 2-2, so they scored in all four but also conceded in all four. Across their last six matches in all competitions, they have only one clean sheet and have produced goals in five of them.
Rayo are the less convincing side for this market, which is why the price is not shorter. They have only scored in three of their last six matches overall, and four of their last five have stayed under 2.5 goals. Still, their home league record shows they usually stay competitive at both ends: 16 scored and 11 conceded in 14 home games, with only two home defeats all season.
The away split is the strongest push back toward BTTS. Elche are still without an away league win, but they have scored 14 times in 14 away matches while conceding 30, and that combination often keeps both sides live. Elche is on a six-match both-teams-to-score streak.
There is a slight tension with the projections, because the xG call is only about 1.4 for Rayo and 0.9 for Elche, so this is not a huge-margin BTTS case. Even so, Rayo created 1.6 xG at Barcelona in their latest league game despite losing 1-0, which suggests they should generate chances at a better level on Friday evening than they did against one of the division’s strongest sides.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.91. Elche have seen both sides score in six straight matches, their last four league games all landed for this market, and they have conceded 30 goals in 14 away league fixtures. Rayo have also let in 11 goals in 14 home league matches, so Elche do not need many openings to contribute their part.
