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Strasbourg give the strongest 1X base. They are nine games unbeaten and have taken two wins and three draws from their last five across league and cup, while Nice have lost three of their last six overall. The home and away league splits also lean that way: Strasbourg are 7-3-3 at home with only nine goals conceded there, and Nice are 3-1-9 away.
The BTTS part is less straightforward, because Nice are inconsistent going forward. They have failed to score in four of their last six matches, including a 4-0 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain on 21 March, and their xG in that game was only 0.2. Even so, they did win 2-0 at Angers in their previous league outing, so the away side only need one moment for this market.
Strasbourg at least bring reliable scoring and some defensive looseness, which keeps both legs of the bet alive. Their last six matches produced three wins and three draws, and they scored in five of those six. The latest league win, 3-2 at Nantes on 22 March, came with 2.3 xG created but also 1.6 xGA allowed, so they looked dangerous enough to win while still giving up chances.
A single supporting angle comes from recent meetings between these sides: both teams have scored in four of the last five head-to-heads. The reverse fixture in January finished 1-1, and last season’s meeting in Strasbourg ended 2-2. That fits the idea of Strasbourg avoiding defeat, even if the xG projection of 1.9 to 0.8 suggests the BTTS half carries a bit more risk than the 1X half.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X & BTTS at 1.95. Strasbourg’s 7-3-3 home league record and Nice’s 3-1-9 away return support the no-loss side, while Strasbourg have seen both teams score in eight of their last ten and four of the last five head-to-heads have landed BTTS. The projected 2-1 score also matches the market well.
