Real Club Deportivo de la Coruña come into this with the clearer home edge, even if their overall form has been uneven. They have won only two of their last six league matches, but the bigger point for a home result is that Eibar are still carrying a heavier burden of losses and are arriving after a run that has brought no wins in eight.

Eibar’s recent away numbers are not encouraging for a trip to a side above them in the table. Their last six league matches have produced six straight defeats, and they have struggled to turn tight games into points, losing 1-0 to Real Madrid, 1-0 to Athletic Club and 2-0 at Espanyol. That kind of sequence leaves little room for confidence when facing a team that has already beaten Levante away and has a slightly better attacking return across the season.

Deportivo’s own results are not spotless, but they have enough about them to justify favouritism at home. They have scored in three of their last five league matches, and their season record of 26 goals scored is comfortably better than Eibar’s 11. The xG line also leans their way at 1.6 to 1.0, which fits a narrow home win more than a comfortable one, especially with Eibar having kept things close in several of their defeats.

The head-to-head record adds a small but useful layer for Deportivo. Eibar have won the last two league meetings, but both were tight one-goal games, and five of the last six meetings have stayed under 2.5 goals. That leaves some tension with a home win bet, because the historical edge is not one-sided, yet the present form gap is much more convincing than the older results.

My prediction is Home Win at 83/100. Deportivo are the side in better league position, Eibar arrive on a run of eight matches without a win, and their away scoring has been weak enough to leave them vulnerable again. The xG projection also favours the hosts at 1.6 to 1.0, while the recent head-to-heads suggest a tight match rather than a dominant away performance.