Real Sociedad arrive in much better shape for this one, having won four of their last five league games and kept three clean sheets in that spell. The only real blemish was the 0-3 home loss to Real Madrid on 14 March, but they responded with a 1-0 away win at Levante and limited chances well in that match, with six shots on target to none for the hosts.

DUX Logroño’s away and overall form points the other way. They have gone five league matches without a win and lost four of their last five, including a 0-1 home defeat to Costa Adeje Tenerife and a 0-5 loss at Atlético de Madrid. Even their recent 1-1 draw at Espanyol came after they had already fallen behind in the game, and their season record of just one win from 23 leaves them short of the consistency needed here.

The head-to-head record is firmly in Real Sociedad’s favour, with six wins and one draw from the last seven meetings and no defeat in that sequence. They also scored first in each of the last six meetings, while the latest league clash ended 1-0 to Sociedad in Logroño. That pattern matters for a home win, even if the projected 2-1 scoreline leaves a small opening for DUX to nick a goal.

Real Sociedad’s league numbers also fit a home success more than a tight upset. They sit third on 50 points with 45 goals scored and only 22 conceded, while DUX have let in 46 in 23 matches. The xG projection of 2.1 to 0.8 points to the home side creating the clearer chances, and DUX’s habit of conceding first in five straight games is another problem for the visitors.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/7. Real Sociedad have won four of their last five league matches, they have taken six of the last seven head-to-head meetings, and they have scored first in each of the last six clashes with DUX Logroño. DUX arrive winless in five and have lost three of their last four away or home league games, so the home side should have enough control to take the points.