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Real Sociedad are still the stronger side for a home result here. They are 7th in the table with 38 points, compared with Levante’s 19th and 26 points, and their home record is solid at seven wins from 14 league matches. They have also won three of their last six in all competitions, including league home wins over Osasuna and a cup win over Athletic Club, so the recent spell is mixed rather than poor.
Levante bring a fair counter-case because they are unbeaten in four league matches, with two wins and two draws, and they just beat Real Oviedo 4-2. Their away record is not a complete collapse either, with three wins and three draws from 14 league trips. That is why the 2-1 projected score sits more comfortably with a narrow home success than with any dominant Real Sociedad call.
The clearest warning for Real Sociedad comes from their most recent outing on Friday, 20 March, when they lost 3-1 away to Villarreal and conceded heavily on the underlying numbers too, allowing 3.7 xGA and eight big chances. Still, that was an away game against stronger opposition, and their home numbers remain better, with 27 goals scored and 21 conceded in 14 league matches.
There is one useful head-to-head angle for the result market: Real Sociedad have scored first in five of the last six meetings between these teams. The reverse fixture finished 1-1 in December, so this is not a fixture to treat as straightforward, but an early home lead would suit the pick given Levante have already lost eight of 14 away league games.
My prediction is Home Win at 1.62. Real Sociedad have seven home league wins from 14, Levante are 19th overall and have lost eight of 14 away matches, and the home side’s projected xG edge is clear at 1.7 to 0.8. Levante’s four-game unbeaten run is a real concern, but the table gap and stronger home profile still give Real Sociedad the better chance of taking all three points.
