Prediction (no JavaScript):

Renate come into this one needing a response after a home defeat to L.R. Vicenza, but their season-long home record is still respectable enough to keep them in the conversation. They have taken 19 goals at home in 16 league games, while Novara have managed only three away wins all season and have drawn 11 of their 16 trips, so the visitors are not a side that regularly go to difficult grounds and take all three points.

The goal numbers also lean towards a fairly tight contest rather than a comfortable away day. Renate’s home matches average just over two goals in total, and Novara’s away games are even lower, with 15 scored and 13 conceded on the road. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, which fits the shape of this fixture better than a wide-open scoreline.

That said, neither side has been easy to shut out completely. Renate have scored in three of their last four league games, while Novara have gone nine matches unbeaten and have only lost once since early February. Novara’s recent 3-0 win over Alcione Milano was their sharpest attacking display in weeks, but their away profile is still draw-heavy, and that often keeps opponents alive deep into matches.

Renate’s stronger league position, plus home advantage, is the main reason to lean their way. They sit fifth with 53 points, compared with Novara in 10th on 44, and Renate’s overall record of 14 wins is far healthier than Novara’s eight. The projected 2-1 scoreline also points to a competitive game, so this is not a clean mismatch, but the home side still have the clearer path.

My prediction is Home Win at 23/20. Renate’s home record is solid enough, Novara have only three away wins all season, and their 11 away draws show how often they leave grounds without taking control. The head-to-head edge is slight, but Renate won the most recent meeting in Novara and the overall profile still favours the hosts getting over the line.