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Roma host Pisa on Friday evening in a Serie A game that matters at both ends of the table, even if the two clubs arrive with very different pressures. Roma sit sixth on 54 points after 31 matches, still very much in the fight for European qualification and with little room for error after a messy recent spell. Pisa are bottom, stranded on 18 points, and every passing week tightens the squeeze. For them, this is no longer about vague hope. They need points, fast.
There’s a clear gap in quality and in season-long output. Roma have won 17 of 31 league games and conceded only 28 goals, while Pisa have managed just two wins all season and shipped 55. That tells you plenty. Still, this isn’t a Roma side arriving in perfect order. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team were battered 5-2 by Inter last weekend, and their last six matches across league and Europe have been a mixed bag of defensive wobble and stop-start momentum. Pisa, led by Oscar Hiljemark, are in even worse shape, but the desperation at the foot of the table can make awkward opponents of limited teams. Roma should still fancy this. They have to.
That 5-2 defeat at Inter on 5 April was ugly, and it started almost immediately with Lautaro Martínez scoring after a minute. Roma were opened up too easily, conceded five from 17 shots and allowed five big chances, which is the part Gasperini will hate most. They did at least show some life going forward — Gianluca Mancini and Lorenzo Pellegrini got on the scoresheet — but the game was gone long before the final whistle. It was a reminder that Roma can be rattled badly against top-level attacking sides.
The wider run tells a slightly more complicated story. Before the loss in Milan, they beat Lecce 1-0 at home on 22 March, a controlled enough result even if the scoreline stayed narrow. Around that came their Europa League ties with Bologna, a 1-1 draw away on 12 March and a chaotic 3-3 draw at home on 19 March, which underlined the same theme: Roma usually carry a threat, but clean sheets have become harder to find. In the league they also slipped to a 2-1 defeat away at Como on 15 March and lost by the same score at Genoa on 8 March. So while sixth place is respectable, the recent pattern is clear enough — they’re not dominating matches, and they’re giving opponents chances.
At home, though, Roma still have a platform you can trust more than their recent away results. Their record at the Olimpico reads 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 23 goals scored and only 9 conceded. That defensive figure stands out. Even in a patchy run overall, they’ve generally been far more secure on their own ground. The season numbers support that too: 42 goals scored and 28 allowed in 31 league matches is the profile of a side that usually has control against bottom-half opposition. And Pisa are more than bottom half. They’re last.
One trend is hard to ignore. Roma have seen both teams score in six of their last seven matches. That points to a softness at the back right now, but it also reflects an attack that still tends to contribute even when the overall display is untidy. Their projected xG here is 1.65, which isn’t wild domination, but against this opponent you’d still expect enough volume and territory to create the kind of chances that decide the game by half-time if they’re sharp.
Pisa’s recent form is exactly what you’d expect from a team sitting 20th. It’s bleak. Last weekend they lost 1-0 at home to Torino in a game where they offered next to nothing going forward — just seven shots, one on target, no big chances, and an xG of only 0.32. That’s the sort of attacking output that gets you relegated. They held on until the 80th minute before Che Adams scored for Torino, but there wasn’t much sign Pisa were ever going to win it themselves.
Go back a little further and it gets worse. They were hammered 5-0 away at Como on 22 March, a result that would have badly damaged whatever confidence remained after a rare bright spot, the 3-1 home win over Cagliari on 15 March. That victory is their only win in the last six. Either side of it came a 4-0 defeat at Juventus on 7 March, a 1-0 home loss to Bologna on 2 March, and another 1-0 defeat away at Fiorentina on 23 February. One win, five defeats, 14 goals conceded, three scored. That’s not a rough patch. That’s a team being outclassed most weeks.
Their away record is especially grim: no wins, eight draws and seven defeats from 15 road games, with 16 goals scored and 36 conceded. No away wins at this stage of the season says plenty on its own. The 16 goals scored isn’t disastrous in isolation, but the 36 conceded is. Pisa can be stubborn for stretches, and those eight away draws show they’ve sometimes managed to drag games into a scrap. The problem is that when stronger sides score first, Pisa tend to fold. They’ve conceded first in six of their last seven matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven straight. That’s a dangerous combination when you’re heading to Rome.
There’s another problem. They don’t create enough. Twenty-three goals in 31 league games is the lowest-level attacking return you’d associate with a side already halfway through the trapdoor. Even when they stay in matches, they rarely look equipped to turn them. Can they nick one here? Maybe. Roma have been loose lately. But asking Pisa to produce a complete away performance — defend deep, absorb pressure, then take a chance or two — feels like a stretch too far.
The most recent meeting came on 30 August 2025, when Roma won 1-0 away at Pisa. That result fits the general shape of this fixture from the limited historical sample available: Roma usually find a way through, even if these games haven’t always been high-scoring. For this particular contest, the cleaner takeaway is simple enough — Roma already beat Pisa once this season, and Pisa didn’t score.
That matters because there isn’t much in Pisa’s current form to suggest they’ll suddenly solve a Roma side they couldn’t breach earlier in the campaign.
Home Win & Over 1.5 at 1.61 looks the right play here. Roma’s home record is strong enough to trust, Pisa still haven’t won a single away league game, and the visitors are coming in off a run of seven matches without a clean sheet. That’s the core of it. You don’t need to overcomplicate this one.
There is a small tension in the numbers because Roma’s xG projection sits at 1.65, which doesn’t scream rout on its own, and their recent habit of conceding does leave the back door open to a nervy night. Still, Pisa’s attacking output has been so poor that Roma should be able to control the game and get over the two-goal line needed for this market. The call here is a 3-0 Roma win, which lines up neatly with the projected score and with Pisa’s away struggles. If you want an alternative angle, a straight Roma win also appeals, but the added goal line gives the price a bit more punch without asking for too much.
