Salford City come into this with five wins in their last six league games and only one defeat, but their recent scores have mostly been tight, including a 1-0 loss at Cambridge United on 21 March and 1-0 wins at Harrogate Town and against Walsall. Milton Keynes Dons have also been in strong league form, winning four of their last six, yet their away results have often been controlled rather than wild, with a 1-0 win at Colchester United and a 2-1 success at Swindon Town among their better trips.

The scoring profiles lean toward a lower total than the league table might suggest. Salford have gone under 2.5 goals in four of their last five, while MK Dons have mixed in tighter games alongside their bigger wins, and the away side’s overall figure of 40 goals conceded in 17 away matches still points to respectable defensive work on the road. The projected 1.3 to 0.9 xG split also sits closer to a narrow contest than a free-scoring one.

There is enough attacking quality on both sides to keep the total from looking safe, though, and that is the main tension with an under. MK Dons have scored 76 league goals this season and arrive off a 1-3 home defeat to Barnet, while Salford’s home record includes 29 goals in 19 matches and a 3-1 win over Barrow. Even so, the recent balance of their results suggests one goal could be enough to shape the match.

Head to head also offers a small nod to caution, with four of the last five meetings finishing with two goals or fewer, including MK Dons’ 2-0 win in November 2025 and Salford’s 1-0 win at home in January 2025. Add in that MK Dons have had fewer than 10.5 corners in six of their last seven away matches, and the overall picture is of a game that may not open up for long spells.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Salford have landed under 2.5 goals in four of their last five league fixtures, MK Dons have recently played several tighter away games, and four of the last five head-to-head meetings have stayed below this line. The 1-1 correct score call fits the risk, but the recent patterns and the modest xG projection still favour a low total.