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San Antonio FC come into this US Open Cup tie on the back of four straight wins, and three of those have come without conceding a goal. That is the kind of recent pattern that leans toward a low-scoring game, especially when their last two league wins finished 2-0 and 1-0.
FC Tulsa are also not arriving in chaotic form, but their recent results have been mixed enough to keep totals in check. They have drawn one of their last two, and their most recent outing finished 1-1 against Phoenix Rising FC, a result that followed a 3-2 home win and a 2-4 cup win at Little Rock Rangers.
The head-to-head record between these sides adds to the case for a tight scoreline. Their most recent meeting finished 0-0 in March 2026, and Tulsa have not lost any of the last six meetings, with several of those finishing level or by a single goal.
San Antonio’s home matches have tended to be controlled rather than open, and the broader split also points a little against a goal-heavy contest. The expected xG projection of 1.5 for San Antonio FC and 1.0 for FC Tulsa is not far from a 1-1 type of game, but it still sits close enough to the line to keep Under 2.5 Goals live.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 7/10. San Antonio have kept three clean sheets in their last four wins, Tulsa have just one draw in their last two and only one of those matches went beyond three goals, while the latest head-to-head finished 0-0. Even the xG projection of 1.5 to 1.0 points to a modest scoring range rather than an open cup tie.
