San Martín de San Juan arrive with a mixed run of one win, three draws and two losses in their last six, and their recent league games have leaned tight rather than open. Four of those six finished with two goals or fewer, including the 1-1 draw at home to San Martín de Tucumán on 21 March, where they produced only 0.64 xG and allowed just 0.16 at the other end.

Racing de Córdoba have been a little more upward in results, with three wins, one draw and two losses across their last six, but that form has also stayed fairly compact. Their last away league outing ended 2-1 at San Miguel on 21 March, while their away record in the division stands at one win and one loss with four goals conceded in two trips, which fits a game where chances may be limited.

The head-to-head history points in the same direction. The most recent meeting finished 1-1 in San Juan, and the game before that in June 2024 ended goalless in Córdoba. San Martín have also gone three league matches without a win, but the key detail for this market is that neither side has been producing the sort of steady chance volume that usually pushes this fixture beyond three goals.

San Martín’s home rhythm has been controlled, and Racing’s away numbers are modest rather than explosive. The home side’s last six include just one match above 2.5 goals, while Racing’s away sample has produced only six total goals across two league games. Even with Racing sitting second in the table, the xG projection of 1.0 to 0.5 still leaves plenty of room for a low-scoring contest, although the 1-1 scoreline forecast does leave a small margin for error on the under.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 29/100. San Martín’s last league home game ended 1-1, Racing’s away league sample has averaged only two total goals per match, and the two recent head-to-head meetings produced just two goals and one goal. The xG line of 1.0 to 0.5 also points to a restrained match rather than a high-scoring one.