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SC Austria Lustenau come into this in first place with 40 points, but their recent home output has been mixed rather than commanding. They have won six of nine at home, yet the only two games against top-half pressure in their latest home sequence brought a 3-0 defeat to First Vienna FC and a narrow 2-1 win over Kapfenberger SV, so there is room for Admira to ask questions.
Admira Wacker sit just two points behind in second and their away record is strong enough to take seriously, with four wins, four draws and only two losses from ten on the road. They have also scored 19 away goals and conceded 10, which is a healthier travelling profile than Austria Lustenau’s 11 goals scored and seven conceded at home.
Recent form nudges this toward a tight contest, but not necessarily a home edge. Austria Lustenau have three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five league matches, while Admira have gone without a win in their most recent outing after the 0-3 loss to Rapid Wien II, even though that came after a 4-1 away win at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and a 3-3 draw with Austria Klagenfurt. The head-to-head also leans away from the home side, with Admira unbeaten in three straight meetings against Lustenau.
There is some tension in the scoring projections, because the xG line is close at 1.0 to 1.2 and the correct score call is only 1-2. Even so, Admira’s stronger away figures and their ability to avoid defeat in this fixture recently give them the better case, especially with Lustenau’s home scoring rate staying modest at 11 goals across nine matches.
My prediction is Away Win at 7/5. Admira Wacker’s away record of four wins, four draws and two losses is solid, they have scored 19 times on the road, and Austria Lustenau’s home attack has produced only 11 goals in nine matches. The head-to-head also helps, as Admira are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Lustenau.
