SC Freiburg come into this tie on mixed home form, with two defeats in their last three at home and only a 3-3 draw against Bayer Leverkusen to soften that stretch. Their most recent outing, the 2-3 loss to Bayern München, also showed how fragile they can look without the ball, even though they created enough to stay in the game. Across their last six in all competitions, they have been open at the back and have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine straight matches.
Celta Vigo arrive with more encouraging numbers for a double chance angle because they have avoided defeat in two of their last three and have just won away at Valencia and Olympique Lyonnais. They have also been competitive on the road in Europe, drawing 1-1 at Lyon and winning 2-0 there, while their away league win in Valencia came despite a modest 1.0 xG. That away resilience matters here, especially against a Freiburg side that has conceded in every recent outing.
The scoring pattern also leans toward Celta Vigo holding their own rather than Freiburg controlling the night. Freiburg’s last six have included four matches with at least three goals, while Celta have scored in five of their last six and both teams have scored in six of Celta’s last seven. The 1.3 to 1.6 xG projection points to a tight game with Celta slightly ahead, which fits the away side avoiding defeat even if Freiburg find a goal.
There is a small tension with the projected 1-2 scoreline because Freiburg are at home and have enough attacking numbers to make this uncomfortable, but the balance of recent results still favours Celta Vigo staying unbeaten. Freiburg have lost two of their last three at home, Celta have just delivered an away win in LaLiga and another in Europe, and the visitors’ recent run includes only one defeat in six. That is enough to side with the away double chance rather than a straight home result.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 at 4/7. Celta Vigo have just followed an away win over Valencia with an away win at Lyon in Europe, they have scored in five of their last six, and Freiburg have conceded in nine straight matches. Freiburg’s home record is also patchy, with two defeats in their last three at home, so the visitors look well placed to avoid losing again.
