SC Freiburg come into this one with mixed home results, winning seven, drawing two and losing two in the league on their own ground, but their recent overall run has been less convincing with only one win in their last four and a defeat at RB Leipzig on 22 March. That home strength matters, yet they have also gone five matches without keeping a clean sheet, which leaves them vulnerable against a Hoffenheim side that has already scored 37 league goals this season.

TSG Hoffenheim’s away record is a stronger pointer for this market: six wins and four losses on the road, with no away draws at all, so they are either taking points or going home empty. Their recent away wins at Bayer Leverkusen and Nürnberg also show they can control matches on the road, while the 1-0 defeat to Wolfsburg on 21 March was tight rather than damaging to their overall away profile.

The head-to-head also leans Hoffenheim’s way. They have won four of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 home win in November 2025 and a 3-0 victory in Freiburg in February 2025, so this fixture has not been a comfortable one for Freiburg. Even so, Freiburg’s own home record means the away side are not getting a free pass, and the projected 1-2 scoreline reflects that slight tension rather than a one-sided edge.

Freiburg’s defensive trend is another concern for their supporters: they have failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight league games, and they were second best in shots and shots on target at RB Leipzig, losing 14-11 in shots and 7-1 on target. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have the more efficient away numbers over the season, with 18 goals scored and just 11 conceded in ten away matches, which is a useful combination when backing the visitors to edge it.

My prediction is Away Win at 1/1. Hoffenheim’s away record is solid enough to trust, with six wins from ten on the road and no draws. Freiburg have not kept a clean sheet in five league matches, and their last home outing against Nürnberg was only a narrow 2-1 win. Hoffenheim have also taken four of the last five head-to-heads, including wins in Freiburg and a 2-1 success in the reverse fixture.