Scotland U21 come into this one unbeaten in four, with a win over Bulgaria U21 and a clean sheet away to Gibraltar U21 among their latest results. That run has included only one goal conceded in their last two games, so they have at least been hard to break down. Even so, the home side were beaten 2-0 by Czechia U21 in the reverse fixture, which is a reminder that this is not a straightforward assignment.

Czechia U21 have lost only once in their last six, and that came in a narrow 2-1 defeat away to Bulgaria U21. Before that, they had put together four straight wins, including a 5-0 home defeat of Azerbaijan U21 and a 2-1 away win over Gibraltar U21. They also held Portugal U21 to a goalless draw in their most recent match, so their form is still strong enough to travel with confidence.

The goal picture is a little more mixed than the recent clean sheets suggest. Scotland’s last two competitive games have produced just one goal each, while Czechia have shown both ends of the scale, from a 0-0 with Portugal U21 to a 5-0 win over Azerbaijan U21. The xG line is also fairly close, with Scotland at 1.2 and Czechia at 1.4, which points to a tight contest rather than a one-sided one.

There is a decent case for the visitors to edge it because Czechia have already beaten Scotland 2-0 in this qualification group, and the away side have only gone winless in two since then. Scotland’s unbeaten run is respectable, but it has been built against Bulgaria and Gibraltar, and that does not carry the same weight as Czechia’s recent results against Portugal and Azerbaijan. The slight tension is that Scotland are not in poor shape, so this is not a high-conviction away side angle, but the visitors still have the stronger overall profile.

My prediction is Away Win at 31/20. Czechia U21 have lost just one of their last six matches, they already beat Scotland U21 2-0 in September, and they followed that with a draw against Portugal U21 plus a win over Azerbaijan U21. Scotland’s recent unbeaten run is solid, but the xG edge still sits with Czechia at 1.4 to 1.2, which supports the visitors to get the job done again.