Scunthorpe come into this with three wins and a draw from their last four league games, and that run has been built on open contests rather than control. Their last six have produced five matches with at least three goals, including a 3-2 away win at Braintree Town last Saturday and a 2-1 home win over Altrincham. At home, they have scored 34 and conceded 25 in 19 league matches, so their games at Glanford Park have regularly had room for chances at both ends.

Rochdale have also been playing in lively fixtures, with five wins from their last six and both of their most recent league matches finishing 3-2. They scored three or more in wins over Tamworth, Eastleigh and Brackley Town, and even in the one away defeat at Southend they still found the net twice. Their away record is strong, with 34 goals scored and 17 conceded, which points to a team that travels well but does not always keep things tight.

The head-to-head angles also lean toward goals. The sides drew 1-1 in Rochdale’s last visit in February, but across the wider meeting history there have been several high-scoring finishes, including 1-4, 1-2 and 3-3 scorelines. Both teams have scored in nine of the last ten meetings, and Scunthorpe’s own home pattern of conceding in 4 straight adds to the case for another open game.

There is a small tension here because the most recent meeting ended level and Scunthorpe have not been shy about protecting home ground against the better sides in the table. Even so, both clubs are arriving with strong attacking numbers, and Rochdale’s away record plus Scunthorpe’s 34 home goals suggest this should not settle into a cautious affair. The xG projection of 1.6 to 1.7 also sits comfortably above the total line.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5. Scunthorpe have gone over 2.5 goals in eight straight league matches according to the database trend, Rochdale have scored in five of their last six and conceded in three of their last three, and the head-to-head has produced both teams scoring in nine of the last ten. With both sides carrying strong recent scoring form and decent attacking away/home splits, three goals looks the likelier outcome.