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Shakhtar Donetsk come into this first leg with four wins from their last five matches, and their home work has been especially steady, with three clean-sheet wins in that spell. Even in the 3-0 victory over Rukh Lviv on 5 April, they produced a huge 3.92 xG and 22 shots, while their only recent home setback was the 1-2 loss to Lech Poznań in this competition.
AZ Alkmaar’s form is more open, with three wins and two losses from their last five, and their away results have been lively. They beat Sparta Praha 4-0 in Prague, but they also lost 3-0 at FC Groningen, and that mix of attacking output and defensive gaps fits a BTTS angle better than a clean one-sided result.
The numbers point to chances at both ends rather than a controlled, low-event tie. Shakhtar have scored in each of their last five matches, while AZ have found the net in four of their last five and are coming off an away game that featured 16 shots and seven on target despite the defeat. The 1-1 correct score call also matches that pattern, even if Shakhtar’s recent home clean sheets leave a small tension against BTTS.
One supporting angle is Shakhtar’s run of being first to score in eight of their last nine matches, which suggests they should get the opening goal here. AZ have also been first to score in six of their last seven, so there is a decent chance the game becomes stretched rather than settled early.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 4/7. Shakhtar have scored in five straight matches and AZ have scored in four of their last five, while AZ’s away games have recently carried enough attacking volume to create chances. Shakhtar’s last home league win was a clean sheet, but their 1-2 loss to Lech Poznań and AZ’s 3-0 defeat at Groningen show both sides can be exposed.
