Sochaux arrive in strong league form, having won four and drawn two of their last six, and they have not lost in nine matches overall. At home they are even more convincing, with seven wins, three draws and only one defeat, plus just five goals conceded in 11 league games on their own ground. That kind of control is exactly what you want behind a home-win call.

Quevilly - Rouen Métropole, by contrast, have taken only four points from their last four league games and come into this one after a 0-1 home loss to Dijon. Their away record is modest too, with three wins, one draw and eight defeats, and they have scored only 11 times on the road. Against a top-two side, that leaves little margin for error.

Sochaux’s recent performances add to the case. The 4-1 win at Aubagne FC came with 18 shots, nine on target and 1.7 xG, while their home wins over Concarneau and Villefranche were also handled with control. Quevilly’s latest outing was the opposite, producing just 0.3 xG and two shots on target in a narrow defeat, which is a poor attacking base to take into a difficult away fixture.

There is one slight tension for a home-win bet: the head-to-head meetings have often been tight, including a 1-1 draw in October 2025 and a 1-0 Quevilly win in May 2025. Even so, Sochaux have the better current profile, the stronger home numbers and the steadier defensive record, while Quevilly have failed to win their last four league matches and have gone four games without a clean sheet.

My prediction is Home Win at 24/50. Sochaux have nine matches without a loss, they have won seven of 11 home league games, and they have allowed only five home goals all season. Quevilly - Rouen Métropole have lost eight of their 12 away league matches and are coming off a flat 0-1 defeat to Dijon, so the home side should have the stronger platform.