Somalia come into this qualifier without a win in six, but their recent home games have at least kept scorelines tight enough to support a home result in a low-scoring contest. Mauritius are also winless in six and have failed to win any of their last 12, which leaves them leaning heavily on draws and narrow defeats rather than a convincing away record.

The goal profile points to a match that could be decided by small margins. Somalia’s last six have produced only one draw and five defeats, yet three of those losses were by a single goal or a two-goal gap, while Mauritius have drawn twice and lost four of their last six. With both sides short on cutting edge, this does not look like a game that should need many chances to settle.

There is some tension around the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Mauritius have just blanked Libya 0-0 and have also kept games relatively contained at times, while Somalia have not been free-scoring either. Even so, Somalia’s home edge matters here: the average home side in this sample environment posts 1.3 goals per match compared with 0.9 for away teams, which fits the expectation that the hosts can do enough without turning this into a shootout.

Mauritius’ broader run is especially poor for backing them to resist pressure for 90 minutes, with no wins in 12 and just one unbeaten game since their defeat to Cameroon on 8 October. Somalia have also been first to concede in six of their last seven, so the safer angle is not a dominant home display but a home side that can recover from occasional setbacks and still edge it.

My prediction is Home Win at 27/20. Somalia’s home split is stronger than Mauritius’ away numbers, Mauritius have gone 12 without a win, and their recent results are full of draws and narrow losses rather than away successes. Somalia have also shown just enough resilience at home to turn a tight qualifying tie in their favour, even if the 2-1 projection suggests it may not be comfortable.