Southend come into this with 61 points and a strong home record of 10 wins, 5 draws and only 3 defeats, while Woking have also travelled well with 8 away wins and 28 goals scored on the road. That points to a fixture with enough attacking intent at both ends to threaten the total, especially with Southend averaging 33 home goals and Woking carrying 56 goals for overall.

Recent scoring trends lean the same way. Southend have seen three of their last four league games finish with at least three goals, including a 3-2 win over Rochdale and a 2-2 draw at Carlisle, while Woking have gone over this line in four of their last five, hitting three against Aldershot, four at Brackley and three against Tamworth. Woking have also been involved in five straight league matches with both teams scoring, which keeps the game open.

The head-to-head record adds another layer, because five of the last six meetings between these sides have stayed under 2.5 goals, so there is a real split between the historical pattern and the more recent attacking numbers. Southend have also avoided defeat in six straight meetings with Woking, which is part of why a 2-1 type of scoreline feels more plausible than a one-sided game.

Southend’s home split and Woking’s away numbers both sit above the league’s usual baseline for goals, with home teams averaging 1.55 goals per match and away sides 1.27. Southend’s expected 1.8 xG and Woking’s 1.4 xG also point to chances at both ends, although the recent head-to-head totals do leave a small warning that the market is not completely straightforward.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5. Southend have produced three of their last four league games with at least three goals, Woking have landed over 2.5 in four of their last five, and both teams have found the net regularly in Woking matches. Southend’s home output and Woking’s away scoring record also support a game where two goals is unlikely to be enough.