Spain bring the strongest case on the result side of this bet. They are unbeaten in 20 matches and have won five of their last six, with the only slip a 2-2 draw against Türkiye. The home scores in that spell also fit the combined condition well: 3-0 against Serbia, 4-0 against Bulgaria, 2-0 against Georgia and 2-2 against Türkiye all landed within a Spain win and under 4.5 goals, with only the 6-0 trip to Türkiye clearing the total.

Egypt’s recent results are the main reason the price is not shorter. They won 4-0 away to Saudi Arabia on 27 March and have only one defeat in their last six, while three of those six stayed under 2.5 goals. That gives them some capacity to keep the total down even if they lose, although their 0-1 defeat away to Senegal and 0-0 draw away to Angola are more relevant to this market than the Saudi Arabia win because they show how their tougher away games can become low-scoring.

The projection also points toward the same lane rather than a wide-open game. Spain are forecast at 2.3 xG to Egypt’s 0.6, which supports a home win while still leaving room under this total, and the model’s correct-score call of 3-0 is a direct fit for the bet. Spain were also first to score in nine straight matches, an important angle when the pick needs them to control the game without it turning into a five-goal match.

Spain’s latest performance gave a clean example of that pattern. In the 3-0 home win over Serbia they allowed only two shots and no big chances while taking the match over early, with Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice before Victor Muñoz added the third. A controlled Spain lead is ideal for this market, because it points more toward a managed home victory than a chaotic high-total contest.

My prediction is Home Win & Under 4.5 at 1.62. Spain are unbeaten in 20 matches and have won five of their last six, the xG split is a clear 2.3 to 0.6 in their favour, and the projected 3-0 score lands perfectly in this market. Egypt also have five under-2.5 games in their last seven, which supports the idea of Spain winning without the total running too high.