Spain are the stronger fit for a home win with goals because their recent results have been both dominant and high scoring. They have five wins and one draw from their last six, scoring four against Georgia, four against Bulgaria, six away to Türkiye and three away to Bulgaria. That supports the result side of the bet and the goal line at the same time, especially with Spain averaging well above two goals per game across that run.

Serbia bring the main risk because they have still managed three wins from their last six, but the pattern around those results is useful for this market. They have lost three of those six, including 2-0 away to England and 5-0 at home to England, and they have conceded in five straight matches. For a Home Win & Over 2.5 pick, that defensive trend matters more than their occasional wins, because Spain do not need a close game here; they need to turn superiority into a multi-goal result.

The clearest recent pointer is Spain’s 2-2 draw with Türkiye on 18 November. They created 3.1 xG, had 21 shots and five big chances, so the attacking level was still strong even though they failed to win. Spain have also gone over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, which is a strong single streak to lean on for this specific combo market.

There is one small tension in the projections: Serbia’s attacking expectation is only 0.6 xG, so most of the work on this bet may need to come from Spain alone. That is still plausible because the score forecast is 3-0 and the previous meeting in Spain finished 3-0 to the hosts in October 2024. Luis De La Fuente’s side look much more likely to supply the total than rely on Serbia contributing.

My prediction is Home Win & Over 2.5 at 1.60. Spain are unbeaten in 19 matches, they have scored at least three goals in four of their last six, Serbia are without a clean sheet in five straight games, and the xG projection of 2.3 to 0.6 points toward a Spain-led win that clears the goal line.