Stockport County arrive in solid home shape for this one, with 10 wins, four draws and only four defeats at Edgeley Park in the league. That home record is stronger than AFC Wimbledon’s away profile, and it fits a home result rather than a wide-open chase. Stockport have also taken four points from their last two league matches, so they are not coming in cold.

AFC Wimbledon are harder to trust on the road, where they have lost nine of 19 league away games and conceded 36 goals. Their last six league outings have brought only one win, alongside two draws and three defeats, while they have also gone four league matches without a victory. That leaves them vulnerable against a side sitting fifth and already collecting points consistently at home.

There is enough scoring threat on both sides to keep the contest live, even if the market points toward Stockport. Stockport’s recent league games have included a 2-1 home win over Northampton Town and a 1-1 draw at Luton Town, while AFC Wimbledon have seen both teams score in four of their last six league matches. The two sides also met twice in League Two in 2023 and 2024, with Stockport winning both home and away by one-goal margins.

The numbers still lean Stockport’s way at home. They average 2.2 goals scored and conceded combined in home league games, while Wimbledon’s away record allows 36 goals in 19 matches. Stockport’s xG projection of 1.9 against 1.2 also points to the hosts creating the better chances, even if a 2-1 scoreline would leave the away side with a goal.

My prediction is Home Win at 4/7. Stockport’s home record is clearly stronger than Wimbledon’s away return, the visitors have gone four league games without a win, and Stockport have won both of the recent head-to-head meetings. Wimbledon’s away defence has also been leaky enough to give the hosts the edge.