Sutton United come into this one with a mixed home profile, sitting on six wins, seven draws and seven defeats at their own ground, and their recent results have swung between sharp and fragile. They have scored in enough of their games to keep the BTTS angle alive, but they have also been shut out in two of their last six and conceded five against Morecambe, so clean-sheet protection has not been reliable.

Rochdale’s overall numbers are stronger, and their away record is especially relevant for a goals-based call. They have scored 36 and conceded 19 on the road, while their recent away trips have produced a 3-2 win at Eastleigh and a 2-2 draw at Scunthorpe United. That kind of pattern points more toward an open contest than a controlled low-scoring game, even if the scoring line does not always break heavily.

The recent form also keeps both teams in the frame. Sutton beat Eastleigh 2-0 on 24 March but had previously lost 3-0 at home to Truro City, while Rochdale have found the net in five of their last six and have not kept a clean sheet in their last four. Rochdale’s habit of scoring first and Sutton’s occasional home lapses add to the sense that each side should get chances.

There is a small tension with the head-to-head record, because the last two meetings finished 1-0 either way, and that is the main reason the market price is not shorter. Even so, the wider data leans the other direction: Rochdale have seen both teams score in five of their last six, Sutton’s home matches have not been especially tight, and the combined xG projection of 1.3 to 1.7 leaves room for goals at both ends.

My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 7/10. Rochdale have failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight games, Sutton have conceded in two of their last three at home, and the visitors have landed BTTS in five of their last six. Sutton’s home record also includes 34 goals conceded, while Rochdale’s away matches have been productive enough to support a goal for each side despite the recent 1-0 head-to-head results.