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RB Leipzig bring the stronger case for an away win on 4 April. They are fourth with 50 points from 27 matches, while Werder Bremen sit 14th on 28 points, and the split between the two seasons is clear in the goal records as well: Leipzig have scored 53 and conceded 35, Bremen have scored 30 and let in 47. Recent league form also leans Leipzig’s way, with three wins and two draws from their last six, compared with Bremen’s three wins and three defeats in the same span.
Bremen’s home numbers are a real concern for this market. They are only 16th in the Bundesliga home table with four wins, four draws and five losses, and they have been outscored 23-14 in those 13 home matches. Leipzig’s away record is solid enough to punish that, with six wins, three draws and four defeats on the road, plus 19 goals scored away from home.
There is a fair counterpoint from Bremen’s latest result because they won 1-0 at Wolfsburg on 21 March, but even that performance was not especially convincing. They generated only 0.4 xG, had no big chances, and still needed Justin Njinmah’s 68th-minute goal to take the points. Leipzig’s latest outing was much more authoritative, a 5-0 home win over Hoffenheim on 20 March with a 2.2 to 0.8 xG edge, nine shots on target and four big chances.
One head-to-head angle also supports the away side without overcomplicating it: Leipzig are unbeaten in the last 13 meetings between these clubs. The most recent league meeting ended 2-0 to Leipzig in November 2025, and Bremen have also been first to concede in eight of their last ten matches, which is a dangerous pattern against a top-four side.
My prediction is Away Win at 2.05. Leipzig have the stronger overall season by a wide margin, Bremen’s home record is poor at four wins from 13 with 23 goals conceded, and Leipzig have already taken a 2-0 win in the most recent meeting. The projected 1-2 score and xG split of 1.0 to 1.6 also point more toward a Leipzig victory than a draw or home result.
