Prediction (no JavaScript):

Sweden U21 come into this one after a 2-2 draw with Montenegro U21 on 27 March, and their recent league run has been mixed rather than reliable, with two wins, one draw and three defeats across the last six. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight meetings with Italy U21, which matters here because the visitors have been scoring freely enough to put real pressure on Sweden’s back line.

Italy U21 arrive in stronger attacking shape, fresh from a 4-0 home win over North Macedonia U21 on 26 March. That result followed other high-scoring outings in qualification, including 4-1 away at Montenegro U21 and 5-1 at home to Armenia U21, so they have repeatedly found ways to create multiple chances and turn them into goals. Their last six have included four wins and three of those victories came with at least four goals scored.

The head-to-head record also leans Italy’s way. They beat Sweden 4-0 in October 2025, and across the recent meetings Italy have avoided defeat in four straight against this opponent. Sweden, meanwhile, have conceded first in five of their last six in the competition, which is a concern against an Italy side that has scored first in five of their last six.

There is a small tension in the numbers because the xG projection is only 0.9 for Sweden and 1.2 for Italy, so this is not a case for overloading the away side’s advantage. Even so, the stronger recent finishing, the better clean-sheet protection in the last round, and the favourable matchup history all point toward Italy having the edge.

My prediction is Away Win at 67/100. Italy U21 have won four of their last six in qualification, they have gone four meetings without losing to Sweden U21, and they have been first to score in five of their last six. Sweden’s recent home draw with Montenegro U21 does not offer much reassurance against a side that just beat North Macedonia U21 4-0 and also won 4-0 in the reverse fixture.