Sweden come into this playoff after a useful lift on 26 March, beating Ukraine 3-1 away, and that matters because they had taken only one point from the previous four matches. Graham Potter's side now have two games unbeaten, and their attacking output in that latest win was decisive rather than fortunate, with Viktor Gyökeres scoring three times. For a Home Win pick, the key is that Sweden have already shown they can land the bigger result under pressure.

Poland bring the stronger recent sequence, with five wins and one draw from their last six and no defeat in seven matches. Jan Urban's team also won their own playoff opener, beating Albania 2-1, so Sweden are facing an opponent that has been very hard to put away. That is the main obstacle to the home side here, and the projected 2-1 score reflects that this is not a one-sided call.

The underlying numbers still lean Sweden's way. The xG projection is 1.8 for Sweden against 1.1 for Poland, which is a meaningful edge for the hosts in a match-result market. There is also a small general home bias in these fixtures, with home teams averaging 1.90 goals per match compared with 1.42 for away sides, so Sweden are being asked to do something that fits the broader setting rather than fight against it.

One extra angle that supports the home result is the recent head-to-head trend in Sweden's favour. Sweden have won five of the last six meetings listed between these countries, including a 3-2 win at EURO 2021 and two separate 2-0 victories in qualifying history. Poland did win the most recent meeting in March 2022, so that angle is supportive rather than decisive.

My prediction is Home Win at 1.95. Sweden have momentum from the 3-1 playoff win over Ukraine, the xG projection gives them the clearer attacking edge at 1.8 to 1.1, and Poland's latest 2-1 win over Albania was less convincing than the result looked because they allowed more big chances than they created. The call is not risk-free because Poland are seven games unbeaten, but the home side still has the stronger case to win outright.