Germany bring the stronger case for the away win. They have won five of their last six matches, and all five victories in that spell came in a row before the September defeat in Slovakia. Their recent results have not just been narrow either: 4-0 against Luxembourg, 1-0 in Northern Ireland, 2-0 in Luxembourg and then 6-0 against Slovakia. The underlying projection also points their way, with Germany at 1.9 xG to Switzerland’s 0.9.

Switzerland are not an easy side to oppose because they are six matches unbeaten, with four wins and two draws in that sequence. They beat Kosovo 4-0, Slovenia 3-0, won 2-0 away to Sweden, then followed a 4-1 home win over Sweden with a 1-1 draw in Kosovo. That is the main resistance to an away-win pick, and the projected 1-2 score reflects that Germany may need to work for it rather than expect a straightforward result.

The latest match evidence still leans toward Germany. On 17 November they crushed Slovakia 6-0 and created 3.3 xG from 22 shots, with Leroy Sané scoring twice and Germany generating seven big chances. Switzerland’s most recent outing was a 1-1 draw away to Kosovo on 18 November, and although the xG was close, they were held despite going off at around 1.53.

One team-specific streak fits the result market well here: Germany have won their last five matches. That matters more than the head-to-head for this bet, especially because recent meetings between these sides have tended to end level, including the 1-1 draw at EURO 2024. For an away-win selection, current Germany form is the stronger guide than those older stalemates.

My prediction is Away Win at 2.15. Germany have won five of their last six, arrive off a 6-0 victory over Slovakia, and the xG projection gives them a clear edge at 1.9 to 0.9. Switzerland are unbeaten in six, so the draw is the obvious danger, but Germany’s recent run of wins makes the away side the better result bet.