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Tartu JK Tammeka come into this one with a mixed but lively home-and-away profile, having won two of their last three league matches and scored in all three. The 3-2 away win over FC Nõmme United followed a 3-2 defeat at FC Kuressaare, while the home loss to Nõmme Kalju was a tighter 0-1 game. Even when they lose, Tammeka have generally made contests competitive, but their home record is still thin and they have yet to score at home in the league this season.
Flora Tallinn’s recent league form is less convincing than their name usually implies, with two defeats in their last three and only one clean-sheet win in that spell. They were beaten 0-2 at Harju Jalgpallikool after a 0-1 home loss to Nõmme Kalju, though they did beat FC Nõmme United 3-0 in between. The away sample is small, but Flora have already shown enough front-line quality to suggest they can create more than Tammeka have typically allowed at home.
The head-to-head record strongly leans Flora’s way, with six straight league wins over Tammeka. More importantly for a result bet, Tammeka have failed to keep a clean sheet in six consecutive meetings, while Flora have also been vulnerable at the back in this fixture, so the visitors usually have to win it by outscoring rather than shutting the game down. That sits neatly alongside a projected 1-2 type of contest, even if Flora’s own away record this season is still only one match old.
There is a small tension here because Flora’s away league start has been poor, with zero points and two goals conceded on the road, while Tammeka have already shown they can score away from home. Still, the balance of the matchup favours the visitors, and Flora’s stronger chance creation, plus their perfect recent record in this fixture, gives them the clearer winning case. Tammeka’s home form has not offered much resistance either, so Flora’s superior quality should tell over 90 minutes.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/5. Flora have won the last six league meetings with Tammeka, Tammeka are still without a home league goal this season, and Flora’s attack has been the more reliable side of this matchup even in a shaky recent run. The visitors have also gone ahead often enough in this fixture to expect them to control the result again.
