Tokushima Vortis head into this one after four wins in their last six league matches, with the only blemishes being a 1-3 home loss to Kataller Toyama and the 1-2 defeat at FC Imabari on 22 March. At home they have recently beaten Kamatamare Sanuki 1-0 and Albirex Niigata 4-0, which is a useful sign for a home result market.

Kochi United SC arrive with a mixed but still competitive run, though their latest outing ended in a 1-0 loss at Ehime FC. Away from home they have still been able to score, drawing 2-2 at Albirex Niigata and FC Osaka, but that openness can leave them vulnerable when the pressure rises. Tokushima’s league season has also been slightly more productive on the home side than the away side across the broader averages, which leans in favour of the hosts.

The scoring pattern points to Tokushima carrying the sharper edge rather than this being a comfortable shutout. Tokushima have found the net in five of their last six league games, and Kochi have scored in four of their last six, so the away side have enough threat to keep the contest live. Even so, Tokushima’s recent home wins and Kochi’s narrow loss at Ehime suggest the visitors may struggle to turn that threat into points.

There is a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Kochi’s recent away results show they can usually get something going in attack. Still, Tokushima have been first to score in six of their last seven, and they already have the better recent win profile at home, including a 4-0 victory over Albirex Niigata. That combination is more persuasive than Kochi’s away resilience.

My prediction is Home Win at 13/20. Tokushima have won four of their last six league matches, they have already put together convincing home results against Kamatamare Sanuki and Albirex Niigata, and they have been first to score in six of their last seven. Kochi’s away draw at Albirex Niigata and loss at Ehime show they can be competitive, but not consistently enough to outweigh Tokushima’s stronger home record and recent edge in decisive moments.