Torres come into this one without a win in five league matches, but they have steadied defensively enough to stay unbeaten in their last three. The bigger issue for the visitors is their own away record: US Livorno 1915 have lost nine of 15 on the road and have struggled to turn those trips into points, which is a useful base for a home-backed call.

There is also enough recent scoring from Torres to support a narrow win rather than a routine one. Their last six league games have included five draws and one defeat, with three of those finishing level at 1-1 or 2-2, while their home form stands at two wins, eight draws and six losses. That does not scream dominance, but it does suggest they are harder to beat in front of their own crowd than Livorno are away from it.

US Livorno 1915 arrive with only one win in their last six and no clean sheet in four, so Torres should get chances. The away side have conceded 23 goals in 15 away matches, and their most recent trip ended in a 2-0 loss at Ravenna after an xG of just 0.5. Torres have also found the net in four of their last five league outings, which fits a home side that can do enough to edge a tight game.

The projected 2-1 scoreline is not without risk because Torres have drawn plenty, and that remains the main obstacle to a straight home call. Even so, the combination of Livorno’s poor away return, their five-match wait for a league win and Torres’ stronger home record gives the hosts the cleaner angle in a match that should be competitive rather than comfortable.

My prediction is Home Win at 9/10. Torres have the better home profile, with two wins already at their stadium and only six defeats, while Livorno have lost nine of their 15 away league matches. The visitors have also gone five games without a win, and their recent away defeat at Ravenna came with very little attacking threat. Torres have been drawing a lot, so this is not a free hit, but the home side still look more likely to turn that control into three points.