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Treaty United come into this Friday evening fixture with mixed recent form, but their home numbers are stronger than their overall record suggests. At home in the league they have taken one win, one draw and one defeat, scoring four and conceding three, which fits a side that can edge games on familiar turf rather than dominate them.
Longford Town’s away profile is weaker, with no wins, two draws and one loss on the road and only three goals scored in those three matches. They have also failed to score in their defeat to Finn Harps and in the goalless draw with UCD, while their away attack sits below Treaty’s home output. That matters here because the home side only need a modest lift to turn a tight game in their favour.
The recent head-to-head record points both ways, but Treaty have at least usually found a way through against Longford. Six of the last eight meetings saw Treaty score, including a 1-0 home win, a 3-1 home win and a 5-1 home win, although Longford did win the two most recent meetings by one goal each. That leaves some tension around the pick, but it still feels more like a narrow home edge than a fixture Longford are set to control.
Treaty’s recent results also show they are capable of bouncing back at home, with a 2-0 win over Athlone and a 2-2 draw with Kerry among their last few league games. Longford, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three and have not looked convincing away from home, even when the underlying chances have been there. With Treaty’s xG projection at 1.4 compared with Longford’s 0.9, the home side look likelier to do enough in a fairly close match.
My prediction is Home Win at 41/40. Treaty’s home record is positive, Longford are winless away in the league, and the visitors have managed only three away goals so far. Treaty have also scored in most of the recent head-to-head meetings, which suits a narrow home success even if the projected 2-1 scoreline suggests Longford can still make it competitive.
