Triestina come into this one with just one win in their last eight league games, and that kind of run still leaves them relying on home form to steady the ship. At their own ground they have six wins, four draws and six defeats, which is a much better base than their overall table position suggests, especially with 29 goals scored there already.

Virtus Verona have not won in 15 league matches and arrive after conceding three at home to AlbinoLeffe. Their away record is poor too, with only three wins from 16 trips and nine defeats, so this is not the sort of profile that usually resists a home side for long. The fact they have drawn 13 league matches overall does leave some tension around a straight home pick, though.

Goals can still come both ways in this fixture, so the home win call is not built on a clean-sheet expectation. Triestina have scored in four of their last six, while Virtus Verona have failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 straight league matches. Even so, the recent head-to-heads lean the right way for Triestina at home, with a 2-2 draw in November and a 3-2 win the last time they hosted this opponent.

The xG picture is also mild support rather than a strong mismatch: Triestina are projected at 1.4 xG to Virtus Verona’s 1.0, which fits a narrow home edge more than a dominant performance. That leaves enough room for a tight game, but not enough to move away from the home side given how often Virtus Verona have been beaten away from home and how long they have gone without a win.

My prediction is Home Win at 21/20. Triestina have the clearer home record, Virtus Verona are winless in 15 league matches, and the visitors have lost nine of their away games. Triestina’s home scoring record is respectable, while Virtus Verona have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 league matches, which gives the hosts the stronger match-winner case even if the margin stays narrow.