Türkiye U19 come into this on the back of two wins in a row, but those results have not been especially comfortable: a 3-2 home win over Hungary U19 on 28 March and a 1-0 away win against Slovakia U19. Before that, they had gone three matches without a win, and across the last six they have mixed in two draws and a loss as well. That sort of stop-start run leaves them competitive, yet not quite as secure as Italy.
Italy U19 arrive with better control of games and a longer unbeaten spell, having won three and drawn three in their last six. Their recent sequence includes back-to-back 3-0 wins over Slovakia U19 and Hungary U19, plus an away 2-0 victory over France U19. Even when they were held by Spain U19 and Latvia U19, they kept matches in a range that suits a favourite away from home, and their last loss is far back.
For the away win angle, Italy’s record carries more weight than Türkiye’s resilience. Italy have gone eight matches unbeaten overall, were first to score in five of their last six, and have also kept a clean sheet in three of their last six. Türkiye, by contrast, have conceded in four of their last five and needed late and early moments to edge Hungary, which is not the kind of pattern that usually protects a home side against a stronger opponent.
The xG line also leans Italy’s way, with the projection at Türkiye U19 1.1 and Italy U19 1.9. That does leave room for a competitive scoreline, and Türkiye’s recent 3-2 win shows they can find chances, but the balance still favours the visitors. The head-to-head record is not one-sided enough to ignore, yet Italy’s current form and cleaner defensive numbers give the away side the clearer edge.
My prediction is Away Win at 2/5. Italy have won their last three competitive matches in this run, including two 3-0 victories and an away 2-0 success at France U19, while Türkiye have allowed goals in four of their last five. Italy have also been first to score in five of their last six, and their eight-game unbeaten stretch is stronger than Türkiye’s more uneven recent form.
