Türkiye come into this playoff in stronger result terms, with four wins, one draw and one loss from their last six, and they are unbeaten in four since the heavy home defeat to Spain in September. Under Vincenzo Montella they have also handled home qualifiers well lately, beating Georgia 4-1 and Bulgaria 2-0. For a Home Win pick, that recent ability to turn home matches into clear victories matters more than the raw goal totals alone.

Romania’s recent record is less stable, even if the 7-1 win over San Marino looks eye-catching at first glance. Across their last six they have three wins, one draw and two losses, and the tougher away trips brought defeats at Bosnia & Herzegovina and Austria. That is the key concern here: Mircea Lucescu’s side have picked up results, but against stronger opposition away from home they have looked more vulnerable than Türkiye have at home.

Türkiye’s latest result also carries some weight because of the level of opponent. They drew 2-2 away to Spain last Tuesday, with goals from Deniz Gül and Salih Özcan, and while Spain created more overall, Türkiye still came away with a credible point against a side they were around 12.00 to beat. A team good enough to avoid defeat in Spain should take confidence into a home playoff against a Romania side whose strongest recent display came against San Marino at tiny odds of around 1.02.

The projected numbers point in the same direction, even if not emphatically. An xG split of roughly 1.3 to 0.6 favours Türkiye, and the correct-score lean of 2-0 fits a home success rather than a wide-open game. There is a slight note of caution because Türkiye’s own last match allowed plenty against Spain, but Romania’s away losses in two of their last three listed road qualifiers make it easier to trust the hosts to edge this.

My prediction is Home Win at 1.40. Türkiye have four wins from their last six and are unbeaten in four, they have already posted home qualifier wins over Georgia and Bulgaria, and Romania have lost away to both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Austria in this recent sample. The xG projection also has Türkiye ahead by a fair margin, with Romania expected to create little.