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Como bring the stronger case for an away result on Monday afternoon. They are unbeaten in seven matches and have taken four wins and a draw from their last five league games, while their season as a whole is much stronger than Udinese’s: fourth place with 57 points against 11th with 39. The away split is solid too, with Como collecting 25 points from 14 league trips and losing only three of them.
Udinese are not in free fall, but their recent league form still leaves room to oppose them in the match result market. They have three defeats in their last six league matches, and even at home they have lost six of 15, scoring only 16 times. Their 5-4-6 home record is middle-tier rather than dependable, which matters against one of the better travelling sides in the division.
The latest results sharpen that contrast. Udinese won 2-0 at Genoa on 20 March, but the chance data from that game was less convincing than the scoreline, with only six shots and an xG of 1.0 while allowing 1.2 xGA. Como’s most recent league outing was a 5-0 home win over Pisa on 22 March, where they restricted the opposition to no shots on target and just 0.4 xGA.
There is one direct meeting this season that supports the away side as well: Como beat Udinese 1-0 on 3 January. The projections are not overwhelmingly one-sided, since the expected goals are only 1.3 to 0.9 and the model probability sits below the implied price, so this is more about Como’s stronger body of work and Udinese’s patchy home record than a pure numbers blowout.
My prediction is Away Win at 1.67. Como are fourth with a 16-9-5 league record, they have lost only three of 14 away matches, and they arrive on a seven-game unbeaten run. Udinese have already lost six home league games and have been beaten three times in their last six league matches.
