Ukraine U21 come into this qualifier with mixed recent results, but their home-strength case is still far better than Lithuania’s overall profile. Their last six include wins over Lithuania, Finland and a strong draw with Hungary, while the defeats have mostly come against tougher opposition. The bigger point for a home victory is that they already beat Lithuania 4-0 away in September, so they have recent proof of how to handle this opponent.

Lithuania U21 arrive in poor shape and, more importantly for a match result bet, they have not won in eight matches. They have also gone eight games without a clean sheet, and that leaves them vulnerable again against a side that has already punished them once in this group. Their most recent outings have also shown a pattern of conceding first and chasing games, which is a bad sign away from home.

Ukraine’s recent numbers are not perfect, since they have been winless in four and failed to score in three of those, so there is a small tension with a straightforward home-win call. Even so, Lithuania’s long run without a victory is the stronger trend here, and the visitors’ defence has not looked capable of keeping a tighter side quiet. The 2-1 correct score idea also fits the possibility of Ukraine doing enough without necessarily turning this into a rout.

The xG projection is another useful pointer, with Ukraine at 1.9 and Lithuania at 0.6. That gap suggests the home side should create the clearer chances and control enough of the game to stay in front. Ukraine also have the better recent head-to-head record, including that 4-0 away win in September 2025, which strengthens the case for them to finish on top again.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/7. Ukraine already beat Lithuania 4-0 in this group, Lithuania are eight without a win, and they have gone eight games without a clean sheet. The visitors’ habit of conceding first also matters here, because it gives Ukraine a clear route to control the match and protect a lead.