VfL Wolfsburg come into this one with five wins from their last six in all competitions and a run of five league and cup matches without defeat. At home they have been especially reliable, with seven wins, one draw and two defeats in the Frauen-Bundesliga, and they have scored first in eight straight matches. That matters for a home win angle because it gives them the early control needed to turn pressure into points.

Union Berlin are having a decent season, but their away record is less convincing than Wolfsburg’s home numbers, with three wins, two draws and five defeats on the road. They did win 4-1 against Werder Bremen on 23 March, yet that was also their seventh straight league game without a clean sheet, so they have been carrying enough defensive risk away from home. Wolfsburg’s own recent league results have stayed tight and efficient, including 1-0 and 0-1 wins, which suits the favourite’s case more than a wide-open match narrative.

The head-to-head record also points one way, with Wolfsburg beating Union 4-1 in Berlin in November 2025 and 6-0 in the 2017 cup meeting. Union have shown some scoring ability and both teams have found the net in each of their last seven league games, so the visitors may still threaten here. Even so, Wolfsburg’s stronger home profile and cleaner recent results give them the clearer edge.

There is a small tension in the xG projection, which has Wolfsburg at 1.9 and Union at 1.4, because that hints at a competitive scoreline rather than a routine home walkover. But Wolfsburg have won five of their last six, are unbeaten in five, and have already beaten Union comfortably in the recent meeting between the sides. Union’s away form and ongoing lack of clean sheets leave them vulnerable if Wolfsburg score first again.

My prediction is Home Win at 3/10. Wolfsburg’s home record of seven wins in ten league matches is stronger than Union’s away return, the hosts have won five of their last six, and they have scored first in eight straight games. Union’s seven-match run without a clean sheet adds to the case, while the recent 4-1 head-to-head in Wolfsburg’s favour shows the gap between the sides.