Víkingur Reykjavík come into this cup tie in excellent shape, with six wins from their last six matches and nine games unbeaten overall. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 home win over Valur Reykjavík on 25 October, a game in which they led the shots 17-9, had six efforts on target, and created six big chances. That sort of control matters for a home win call, especially against a side that has struggled badly for results.

IF Vestri arrive with a far shakier record, having gone nine matches without a win and taking only two draws from their last six. Their last game ended in a 1-5 home defeat to KR Reykjavík, and the numbers were lopsided: 0.93 xG against 4.46 xGA, only two shots on target and 14 conceded on target. They have also been beaten heavily several times recently, so the gap in current level is hard to ignore.

The head-to-head record leans the same way, with Víkingur unbeaten in five meetings and winning four of them. They have also scored first in all five of those games, which is a useful edge for a home victory bet in a knockout setting. Even so, IF Vestri’s recent habit of finding the net means this is not a banker clean-sheet type of home win, and the projected 2-1 scoreline reflects that slight tension.

Víkingur’s home strength adds another layer of support, while IF Vestri’s away form has been poor enough to make points hard to come by. League-average context is modest rather than decisive, but Víkingur’s recent xG of 1.7 against Valur and IF Vestri’s 4.46 xGA against KR point in opposite directions. On balance, the home side look far more reliable in both territory and chance quality.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/4. Víkingur Reykjavík have won their last six matches, are unbeaten in nine, and have beaten IF Vestri four times in the last five meetings. IF Vestri are winless in nine and come in after a 1-5 defeat with very poor defensive numbers, while Víkingur have also scored first in all five of the recent head-to-heads.