Vis Pesaro come into this one unbeaten in six league games, with four wins and two draws, and they have kept two clean sheets in their last three at home. Their home record is solid too: six wins, six draws and only three defeats, with 15 goals scored and 13 conceded at their own ground. That balance matters for a home win angle, because they are not just picking up points here and there, they are avoiding losses and doing enough in tight matches.

Perugia’s away numbers are weaker, with only three wins from 15 trips and seven defeats, and they have conceded 23 goals on the road. Their recent form is steady rather than convincing, with two draws and two wins before the latest two-match winless spell, and they have now gone seven games without a clean sheet. That leaves them vulnerable if Vis Pesaro can keep the game at a moderate tempo and force a narrow margin.

The scoring profile also leans Vis Pesaro’s way. Their home matches average only 1.23 goals in the league overall, while Perugia’s away games average 1.08, so this is not a fixture that naturally points to a shootout. Even so, Perugia have found the net in six of their last seven league matches, which is why a tight scoreline is still the likelier shape rather than a comfortable home stroll.

There is a little tension for Vis Pesaro because Perugia have scored in recent away games and the xG projection is fairly close at 1.3 to 1.1, but the home side still carry the stronger avoidance-of-defeat profile. Vis Pesaro are unbeaten in six league matches, Perugia have lost seven away games this season, and the head-to-head in Pesaro has already produced a 1-0 and a 0-0 in recent meetings. That combination fits a home side edging a close contest better than a neutral result.

My prediction is Home Win at 8/5. Vis Pesaro’s unbeaten six-match league run gives them the steadier base, their home record of six wins and six draws is stronger than Perugia’s away return of three wins from 15, and Perugia have conceded 23 goals on the road. The recent head-to-head in Pesaro also includes a 1-0 home win and a goalless draw, which suits a narrow Vis Pesaro success.