Wales U21 come into this return fixture needing a sharper attacking display after the 3-0 defeat in Belarus on 14 November 2025, but their home games have not been short on chances. They scored once in a 1-1 draw with Sweden U21 and twice in the 2-6 loss to Denmark U21, while the 1-0 friendly win over Andorra U21 also kept them on the front foot. That mix points more toward Wales contributing to the scoreline than sitting on a cagey one-goal game.

Belarus U21 have also been involved in matches with goals at both ends more often than not, even if their most recent outing ended in a narrow 0-1 home loss to Denmark U21. Before that, they beat Wales U21 3-0 and drew 1-1 with Russia U21 and Belgium U21, while the 2-3 defeat to Austria U21 showed they can be dragged into open contests. With the league home and away averages sitting around 1.7 and 1.5 goals per match respectively, a lively game is a realistic expectation here.

The concern for Wales is that they were shut out in the reverse meeting, and Belarus have kept Wales scoreless once already in this qualifying group. Even so, Wales’ own home form suggests they are more likely to find a reply than to be completely blank again, especially with an xG projection of 1.7 compared with 0.7 for Belarus. That leaves enough room for a home victory, but not necessarily a clean, comfortable one.

My prediction is Home Win at 3/4. Wales have the stronger xG edge at 1.7 to 0.7, they have already beaten Austria U21 away in this campaign, and Belarus have lost four of their last six overall. The 3-0 defeat in Belarus is a warning, but at home Wales should have enough in the final third to tilt a tighter contest their way.

Belarus’ recent away and neutral results have not offered much to lean on, while Wales have already shown they can respond after setbacks. A 2-1 scoreline fits the balance of Wales’ attacking numbers and Belarus’ tendency to concede in tighter games, and the home side’s need to make their possession count should be enough to secure the three points.