Wexford come into this one with five matches without a win, and their home record is still thin: just one point from two league games, with five conceded already. That matters for a home-win call because they do not need to be dominant here, only sharper than a Treaty side that has also taken only one away point from three and has scored just twice on the road.

The recent numbers point to a game Wexford can edge rather than control. Their last six have produced only eight goals in total, while Treaty’s last six have averaged barely over two goals a game as well. That keeps the match in a relatively low-scoring band, but it also leaves room for a narrow home success if Wexford’s home pressure, which averages a little above the league’s away norm, finally turns into enough chances.

Treaty’s away profile is the main reason the home side remains appealing. They are winless in three away league trips, with two goals scored and five conceded, and their most recent road results include a couple of blanks. Wexford, meanwhile, have at least been generating enough to stay competitive, and the 2-1 correct-score angle fits a contest where neither side has looked reliable enough to pull away.

The head-to-head record leans Wexford as well, with home wins in two of the last three meetings between the clubs, although Treaty did win the most recent one in October. That cuts against any simple edge, so the case here is not for a comfortable favourite, but for a side with just enough home advantage and slightly stronger attacking output to settle it by a single goal.

My prediction is Home Win at 21/20. Wexford are unbeaten in none of their last five league games, but they still have the better overall scoring return than Treaty, 8 goals to 6, and Treaty’s away record remains winless with just one point from three. Wexford’s home form is poor, so this is not a confident one, yet Treaty’s road struggles and Wexford’s marginally stronger home attacking numbers are enough to justify backing the hosts.