Willem II Tilburg arrive with four wins and a draw from their last six league matches, and the most recent of those was a 5-0 away demolition of MVV Maastricht. That run has come with plenty of attacking output, while only one of those six games stayed under three total goals. De Graafschap are less consistent, but their last six still include four matches that produced at least three goals, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last four league outings.

The home and away splits also lean toward a busy scoreboard. Willem II’s home record stands at seven wins, four draws and four losses, with 19 goals scored and 13 conceded, while De Graafschap’s away figures show seven wins, four draws and four losses and 27 goals scored in 15 trips. That is a decent attacking base on both sides, even if Willem II’s home concession rate is a little tighter than De Graafschap’s away scoring numbers might suggest.

Recent head-to-head meetings point in the same direction. Seven of the last nine league clashes between these two have gone over 2.5 goals, and Willem II have avoided defeat in five straight against De Graafschap. The most recent meeting finished 1-1, so there is some tension with a bigger goal line, but the earlier H2H games have more often been open than contained.

The xG projection of 1.9 for Willem II and 1.6 for De Graafschap also sits comfortably with a high-scoring script. Willem II’s 50 league goals and De Graafschap’s 59 mean both sides have enough firepower to contribute, and the recent results from each team have repeatedly drifted into three-goal territory or beyond. A 2-2 type game fits those patterns well.

My prediction is Over 3.5 Goals at 17/20. Willem II have seen only one of their last six league matches finish below three goals, De Graafschap have gone over 2.5 goals in four of their last six, and seven of the last nine head-to-heads between them reached that mark. Their home and away scoring records also support a game with multiple chances at both ends, even if the most recent meeting ended 1-1.