Our Shots on Target Tips back players to register at least one shot on target during the match. We usually target players averaging 1+ shot on target per game in filtered matches against similar-strength opponents, with extra weight given to role, shot volume, expected minutes, and matchup quality.
This is one of the strongest football player prop markets because it is easier to analyse than many result-based bets. You do not need your player to score, assist, or even win the match — you only need them to hit the target at least once. If you want broader daily football picks around the same fixtures, you can also visit our football tips hub and full football predictions page.
More Football Tips
- Single Bet of the Day: Our highest confidence pick when one selection clearly stands out from the rest
- Accumulator Tips: Daily acca picks combining 3-6 selections for enhanced odds
- Football Treble Tips: Three carefully selected picks for a balanced accumulator with solid win probability
- Bet Builder Tips: Player props combined - shots, shots on target, and fouls committed at 1.20-1.70 odds per selection
- BTTS Tips: Both Teams to Score picks where each side expects 2+ big chances and 1.2+ xG
- BTTS and Win Tips: Combined market - a team to win AND both sides scoring for higher odds
- Over 2.5 Goals Tips: Matches expecting 5+ combined big chances and 2.75+ total xG
- Correct Score Tips: Reserved for predictable matchups with clear playing patterns like Arsenal at home
- Anytime Goalscorer Tips: Backing proven finishers and players in form to find the net
What Counts as a Shot on Target?
A shot on target is an attempt on goal that:
- Goes into the net
- Would go into the net but is saved by the goalkeeper
- Would go into the net but is stopped by the last defender on the line
That means every goal automatically counts as a shot on target.
What does not count:
- Shots that miss the target
- Shots that hit the post or crossbar and stay out
- Blocked shots where another defender stops the ball before it would reach goal
This is why shots on target is a stricter market than total shots. A player can take three efforts in a match and still finish with zero SOT if the accuracy is poor.
How Shots on Target Betting Works
In most football betting markets, you are backing a player to hit a specific shots-on-target line, such as:
- 1+ Shot on Target
- 2+ Shots on Target
- 3+ Shots on Target
The most common line is 1+ shot on target, because it offers a good balance between probability and price. Higher lines can offer better odds, but they require much more volume and are naturally more volatile.
This market is especially useful if you like player-based betting but want something more stable than an anytime goalscorer tip. A player can hit the target without scoring, which gives you an extra route to winning the bet.
Our Selection Criteria
We do not just back star names or whoever scored last weekend. Our player shortlist is built around repeatable shooting data and role clarity.
- 1+ SOT average: Players must average at least one shot on target per game in filtered matches
- Opponent-adjusted data: Stats are filtered to matches against similar-strength opponents
- Shot volume: Players taking 2+ shots per game have more chances to hit the target
- Expected minutes: Starters and reliable 70+ minute players are stronger options
- Position and role: Wingers, inside forwards, advanced midfielders, and strikers are the best profiles
We also look at the opposition. A strong shooter facing a defence that allows lots of shots from central or half-space zones is much more attractive than the same player against a low-block side that gives away very little clean shooting volume.
Why the 1+ SOT Threshold?
The 1+ shot on target line is the most practical player SOT market because it keeps the odds in a useful range while still giving you a realistic strike rate. A player averaging 1.2 shots on target per game in the right context usually offers a much more reliable betting profile than someone averaging 0.5 and hoping for a big spike performance.
This is also why filtered context matters. A player’s raw season average may look strong, but if it was inflated by matches against weak opposition, it may not translate into the upcoming fixture.
Player Profiles We Target
- Wingers cutting inside: Salah, Saka, Diaz-type profiles who shoot regularly from dangerous areas
- Inside forwards: Players receiving the ball between the lines and attacking the box
- Attacking midfielders: High involvement, frequent shooting, often from edge-of-box zones
- Penalty-box strikers: Fewer overall shots, but better shot quality and accuracy
- Penalty takers: A penalty that is scored or saved still counts as a shot on target
Shots vs Shots on Target
These are related, but different markets:
- Shots: All attempts, including off target and blocked efforts
- Shots on Target: Only efforts that would have gone in without intervention
That makes shots on target harder to land, but also more valuable in the right spot. A player can take 4 shots and still finish with 0 on target if the shooting quality or accuracy is poor.
If you want the broader player-prop angle around same-match bets, our bet builder tips page is also relevant because SOT selections often combine well with other player markets.
How to Pick Good Shots on Target Bets
The best SOT bets usually come from players who have the right combination of:
- Starting certainty
- High shot volume
- Decent accuracy
- Advanced positioning
- A favourable matchup
Before backing a player, we want to know:
- Are they likely to start and get enough minutes?
- Do they actually shoot often enough?
- Are they accurate enough for the shots market to translate into SOT?
- Does the opponent allow chances in the zones this player attacks?
- Do the odds still offer value?
That is why this market is often more useful than backing a player to score. A striker can play well, shoot twice, test the keeper, and still blank. In that scenario, the anytime goalscorer bet loses — but the 1+ SOT bet still lands.
Understanding SOT Odds and Value
For the common 1+ shots on target line, odds usually fall somewhere around 1.30 to 1.60 for strong candidates. The exact price depends on the player, opposition, expected minutes, and market context.
- 1.20-1.35: Elite volume shooters in strong matchups
- 1.35-1.60: Reliable candidates with good but not dominant profiles
- 1.60+: Riskier players, reduced minutes, tougher fixtures, or higher lines such as 2+ SOT
Value exists when the market underrates a player’s actual shooting role. That might happen when a winger has quietly moved into a more central position, a midfielder is playing closer to goal, or the opposition is weak in the exact channels the player uses most.
Where to Place SOT Bets
bet365 offers one of the strongest football player-prop menus for shots markets:
- Player Shots on Target: 1+, 2+, and sometimes higher lines
- Total Shots on Target: Team and match-level totals
- Bet Builder integration: Combine SOT picks with other player or team markets
- Cash Out: Available on many player prop bets
bet365’s responsible gambling tools also let you manage your activity with deposit limits, reality checks, and time-outs. If bookmaker features matter to you, you may also want to compare bet builder sites, live betting sites, and safe betting sites.
SOT Betting Strategy
Typical odds range: 1.30 to 1.60 for 1+ SOT on reliable shooters
Bet builder use: SOT selections often combine well in same-match builders. A 3-leg builder with three 1+ SOT picks at around 1.40 each gives combined odds of roughly 2.75.
What to avoid:
- Players with poor accuracy profiles
- Rotation risks or uncertain starters
- Players just returning from injury
- Short prices with no real edge
One of the biggest mistakes in this market is backing “famous attackers” without checking whether they actually hit the target often enough. A player can score headlines without being a reliable SOT bet.
Shots on Target in Bet Builders and Multiples
Shots on target selections are often ideal for bet builders because they are player-specific, measurable, and often less dependent on the final match result than goals or win markets.
Common uses include:
- Same-match builders: 1+ SOT combined with goals, result, or fouls markets
- Player-prop doubles: Two SOT selections from different matches
- Mixed accumulators: SOT plus lower-risk team markets
That said, more legs always means more risk. A strong single SOT angle is often better than forcing several average ones into a bigger slip.
Shots on Target FAQ
If they do not play at all, the bet is usually voided. If they come on as a substitute, the bet stands because they can still register a shot on target.
Yes. Every goal is automatically a shot on target. If your player scores, they have registered at least one SOT.
Because official stats usually only count shots that would have entered the goal without intervention. A shot hitting the woodwork and staying out is usually classed as off target.
Often, yes, if you want a more stable player-prop market. A player can have a good shooting match without scoring, which still gives the SOT bet a chance to win.
Yes, but those lines are much harder to hit and suit only the strongest volume shooters in the right matchups.