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Al-Ittihad come into this game with only one win in their last six across all competitions, and three matches without victory in league play, but their home record still gives them a clear edge for a straight home result. They have won eight of 12 at home in the Saudi Pro League, losing only four, and they have already taken 24 points on their own ground.
Al-Hazem have been more erratic on the road, with just three away wins, five draws and five defeats. They have also shipped 21 goals in 13 away league matches, which is a weaker profile than Al-Ittihad’s home return of 15 goals scored and 11 conceded. That combination leaves Al-Ittihad with the more dependable base, even if their recent league form has not been dominant.
The head-to-head record also leans the same way, with Al-Ittihad unbeaten in the last six meetings and two draws in that spell. The most recent clash between these sides finished 1-1 on 24 February, so Al-Hazem are capable of making this awkward, but Al-Ittihad have still tended to avoid defeat in this matchup and have often found a way to edge it.
There is some tension around the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Al-Hazem have scored in several recent league games and Al-Ittihad have gone three league matches without a clean sheet. Still, the bigger point for a home win is that Al-Ittihad are the stronger side at home, while Al-Hazem’s away record and defensive numbers are not convincing enough to turn them into favourites.
My prediction is Home Win at 27/100. Al-Ittihad have eight home league wins already this season, Al-Hazem have only three away wins, and the visitors have conceded 21 goals in 13 away matches. Al-Ittihad are also unbeaten in the last six head-to-head meetings, which supports the home side landing this result.
