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Alianza Atlético of Sullana come into this one with a solid home base to lean on, having taken two wins and two draws from their four league games at home while keeping a clean sheet in every one of them. That sort of record matters for a BTTS-No angle, because it shows they are not only hard to beat in Sullana but also comfortable shutting opponents out altogether.
Club Atlético Grau, meanwhile, have struggled badly on their travels in Liga 1, with no away wins, one draw and three defeats, plus only one away goal scored and six conceded. Their last two league matches have both finished 0-0, so there is recent evidence of resistance, but also a clear lack of attacking punch away from home.
The head-to-head history does not scream open football either. Four of the last five meetings have gone under 2.5 goals, and while both teams have scored in eight of the last nine H2Hs, the more recent pattern in Sullana includes a 0-0 and a 2-1, which is enough to keep a low-scoring, one-sided feel in play rather than a reliable exchange of chances.
Alianza Atlético have just one win in their last two league outings, but at home they remain much sturdier than their overall table position suggests. Grau’s away numbers are the key here: one goal in four trips and only 1.0 expected goals across those matches is not much of a base for backing them to score. The slight tension is that the xG projection still gives Grau 0.9, so a narrow away breakthrough is not impossible, but the stronger evidence points the other way.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 67/100. Alianza Atlético’s home record includes four straight clean sheets in league play, Grau have scored only one away goal all season, and their last two league matches ended goalless. Even with the recent H2H lean toward both teams scoring, the away form and Sullana’s defensive numbers make a clean sheet for the hosts the more convincing angle.
