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Arzignano Valchiampo come into Friday evening on the back of three wins in their last four league games, including a 2-1 success at Dolomiti Bellunesi and a 1-0 home win over Cittadella. That short burst has lifted them after a narrow home defeat to Lecco earlier in March, but their home record is still only fifth wins, six draws and six losses, so they have not been especially secure at their own ground.
Renate are higher in the table and their away numbers are stronger than Arzignano’s home figures, with eight wins, six draws and only three defeats on the road. Their recent run has been mixed, though, with two wins, two draws and one loss in the last five league matches before beating Novara 3-1, and that latest result came after conceding 1.0 xG while allowing 12 shots. They remain the more reliable side away from home, but the tighter xG margin suggests they are not always dominant.
The scoring profile points a little more towards Renate’s side of the bet than a pure home resistance story. They have scored 46 league goals to Arzignano’s 43, and their away record has produced 24 goals for and 15 against. The recent head-to-head meetings also lean their way, with Renate winning 2-1 away in November 2025 and 2-1 at home in March 2025, so Arzignano have struggled to keep them down even when matches have stayed fairly close.
There is still some tension for an away-win call because Arzignano have won three of their last four and have gone three matches unbeaten since their defeat to Lecco. Even so, the home side’s season-long home record is modest, while Renate’s away return sits among the best in the division and they have the stronger overall points tally, goal difference and league position. That combination keeps the visitors on the right side of the edge, even if the match should be competitive.
My prediction is Away Win at 8/5. Renate’s away record of eight wins, six draws and three defeats is a major plus for this market, and they have already beaten Arzignano 2-1 in the most recent meeting at Renate. Arzignano’s home return is only 5W-6D-6L, which is not the profile of a side you want to trust to stop a top-five away team. The 1-2 correct score also fits the way both teams have been finding enough chances without turning games into routs.
